This interactive heat map displays our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) forecasts for key drivers within our licence area out to 2050. The scenarios are designed to illustrate energy futures with different levels of decentralisation, decarbonisation, and digitalisation. We are always keen to understand what our stakeholders think, and so if you have any thoughts, let us know by emailing DFES@ukpowernetworks.co.uk. For FAQs on this visualisation, please scroll to the bottom of the page.
UKPN's future energy scenarios as interpreted from the 2022 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios.
To better show changes in values over time you may wish to change the colour scale.
Select Yes and the colour scale at the bottom of the map will change depending on the year you have selected. This will help improve contrast for each area within your chosen year. Select No and the colour scale at the bottom of the map will stay the same as you move through the years.
Each forecast value is as of the regulatory year end. So “2030” refers to the end of the 2030/31 regulatory year, which runs from April to March, meaning that “2030” refers to the forecast value as of March 2031.
All DNOs have agreed to align to a common scenario framework to allow comparability between the licence areas. The framework was developed as part of the Energy Networks Association’s Open Networks project and was published by National Grid in July 2021.
The Distribution Future Energy Scenarios forecasts are built bottom up by combining specialist knowledge and Element Energy’s in house forecasting tools. Different drivers are forecasted in different ways, for example the EV forecasts are created using the Element Energy Car Consumer model, which takes in scenarios for a full suite of parameters that influence the decisions made by vehicle purchasers such as vehicle costs, fuel costs, government subsidy, model availability and more. Meanwhile, some of the distributed generation forecasts, such as Open Cycle Gas Turbine generation, is disaggregated from National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios forecasts.
As different areas decarbonise at different rates, we will start to see clusters of Low-carbon technologies emerge. This represents a challenge for the network in being able to connect these technologies whilst maintaining a safe and reliable source of power. It takes time to reinforce the network or deploy smart solutions to accommodate any sudden influx of LCTs. Which is why we need geographically specific forecasting to know where these clusters are going to be, allowing us to ensure our network is ready. In addition to the DFES being used by ourselves to plan our network investment strategy. We believe it represents a useful resource for regional governmental bodies to help plan their climate strategies. After our round of engagement last year, we found that 90% of local authorities who responded to our survey said they plan to use DFES data to inform their climate action plans.
We only forecast for regions within our licence area, which does not match up exactly with Local Authority boundaries. This is why, if you select "View by: Local Authorities" and click "Download CSV for this view", the values shown will only correspond to the portion of the Local Authority within our licence area.
Many of the forecasting methods used in this years DFES are similar to those used last year. For the latest DFES we refreshed our baseline data and some of the economic and policy assumptions to align with the current environment. Some of the key developments since the publication of the previous DFES that were captured this year include a rapid drop in battery prices, limits in EV supply, and the Governments’ ambition to phase out of fossil-fuel generation by 2035. Additional improvements made include a complete overhaul of the decarbonised heat modelling based on data from a new UK Power Networks Innovation project Heat Street . These rapid developments within the sector highlight the value of continuing to develop the DFES in an iterative manner.