This interactive heat map displays our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) forecasts for key drivers within our licence area up until 2050. The scenarios are designed to illustrate energy futures with different levels of decentralisation, decarbonisation, and digitalisation. We are always keen to understand what our stakeholders think, and and any views you may have are welcome via email at email@example.com. For FAQs on this visualisation, please scroll to the bottom of the page. To learn more about the DFES, read our technical document, summary report or download the source data, please visit our DFES website.
UKPN's future energy scenarios as interpreted from the 2023 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios.
To better show changes in values over time you may wish to change the colour scale.
Select Yes and the colour scale at the bottom of the map will change depending on the year you have selected. This will help improve contrast for each area within your chosen year. Select No and the colour scale at the bottom of the map will stay the same as you move through the years.
Each forecast value is the value as at the end of the regulatory year which runs from April to March the following year. Taking the year 2030 as an example: 2030/31 is the relevant regulatory year; the forecast value is as of March 2031 (being the end of the regulatory year).
All DNOs have agreed to align to a common scenario framework to allow comparability between the licence areas. The framework was developed as part of the Energy Networks Association’s Open Networks project and was published by National Grid in July 2021, and annually since then.
The Distribution Future Energy Scenarios forecasts are built bottom up by combining specialist knowledge and modelling by UK Power Network’s consultants ERM using their bespoke forecasting tools”. Different drivers are forecasted in different ways, for example the EV forecasts are created using the ERM Car Consumer model, which takes in scenarios for a full suite of parameters that influence the decisions made by vehicle purchasers such as vehicle costs, fuel costs, government subsidy, model availability and more. Meanwhile, some of the distributed generation forecasts, such as Open Cycle Gas Turbine generation, is disaggregated from National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios forecasts.
As different areas decarbonise at different rates, we will start to see clusters of low-carbon technologies (LCTs) emerge. This represents a challenge for the network in being able to connect these technologies whilst maintaining a safe and reliable source of power. It takes time to reinforce the network or deploy smart solutions to accommodate any sudden influx of LCTs. Which is why we need geographically specific forecasting to know where these clusters are going to be, allowing us to ensure our network is ready. In addition to the DFES being used by ourselves to plan our network investment strategy. We believe it represents a useful resource for regional governmental bodies to help plan their climate strategies. Previous engagement has shown that 90% of local authorities who responded to our survey said they plan to use DFES data to inform their climate action plans.
We only forecast for regions within our licence area, which does not match up exactly with Local Authority boundaries. This is why, if you select "View by: Local Authorities" and click "Download CSV for this view", the values shown will only correspond to the portion of the Local Authority within our licence area.
Within this latest edition, notable enhancements have been made to our baseline data, and the forecast is incorporating revised assumptions related to reduced availability of electric vehicles (EVs) and higher grants for heat pumps. There is deeper analysis of battery storage. Grid-scale storage connections grew from 530MW to 830MW over just six months in 2023, and we assessed a pipeline of 15GW to form realistic uptake profiles. We also horizon scan, and assess for the first time the prospects for long duration energy storage. New for this year, our analysis is stated on the latest Census 2021 spatial geography of 11,000 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs), updating from the 2011 definitions.